Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.8% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +19.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.7% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -0.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.30% | -6.30% | -5.12% | 3.21% | 8.26% | -7.20% | 15.28% | -2.35% | ||||
| 2025 | -7.15% | -0.67% | -4.03% | -3.81% | 9.66% | -0.49% | 8.39% | 9.84% | 4.33% | 13.32% | 6.41% | 10.83% |
| 2024 | 8.02% | 5.93% | 10.66% | -1.81% | 1.03% | 3.54% | -4.61% | 12.32% | -9.70% | 13.20% | 9.52% | -3.96% |
| 2023 | 16.88% | -1.48% | -5.10% | -9.92% | -1.91% | 19.31% | -0.49% | -12.43% | -1.61% | -14.47% | 12.38% | 13.67% |
| 2022 | -10.06% | -11.40% | -6.38% | -13.33% | 2.03% | -17.89% | 14.17% | 5.62% | -16.02% | 22.31% | 3.34% | -16.88% |
| 2021 | 21.71% | 1.28% | 11.94% | -0.42% | 3.65% | -0.24% | -3.94% | -13.78% | 7.55% | 3.26% | 6.32% | 1.31% |
| 2020 | -8.66% | -31.04% | 7.27% | 16.11% | -2.24% | -1.62% | 19.04% | -0.14% | 16.69% | 26.96% | -5.02% | |
| Avg | 5.45% | -3.04% | -4.15% | -2.69% | 5.55% | -0.74% | 3.88% | 3.44% | -2.60% | 9.05% | 10.82% | -0.01% |
GM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
GM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
GM Distribution of Daily % Changes