Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.7% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.2% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +35.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.45% | 3.59% | -4.19% | 11.13% | -0.69% | 16.60% | 2.18% | -0.69% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.71% | 4.37% | 3.37% | -6.17% | -1.19% | 1.99% | 13.27% | -0.37% | 2.16% | -7.84% | 2.45% | 3.81% |
| 2024 | 1.09% | 3.35% | -8.32% | -34.40% | 8.65% | -0.58% | 13.04% | 13.27% | 0.82% | -0.06% | 5.34% | 0.25% |
| 2023 | 0.42% | 0.70% | -9.40% | -1.36% | -4.92% | 6.24% | 2.54% | -0.53% | -2.55% | 7.24% | 5.82% | -1.15% |
| 2022 | 9.38% | -1.31% | -0.36% | -2.30% | -0.52% | -0.10% | 3.57% | -3.51% | 2.58% | 16.09% | 3.84% | 0.49% |
| 2021 | -4.63% | 3.33% | 3.46% | 6.28% | 2.86% | -9.65% | -2.04% | 3.18% | -7.33% | 0.21% | -2.79% | 8.30% |
| 2020 | -11.13% | -22.33% | 14.74% | -6.46% | -3.62% | 7.51% | 3.62% | -3.13% | 1.73% | 14.81% | 2.00% | |
| Avg | 2.74% | 0.41% | -5.40% | -1.73% | -0.32% | 1.55% | 5.72% | 2.61% | -1.24% | 2.89% | 4.91% | 2.28% |
GL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
GL Distribution of Daily % Changes
GL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years