Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +2.6% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -2.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +0.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -11.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.89% | -2.23% | -17.71% | -3.53% | -4.25% | 2.93% | 4.51% | 9.65% | ||||
| 2025 | -4.75% | 0.80% | -1.37% | -4.11% | -4.37% | -4.52% | -4.32% | 0.71% | 2.21% | -6.40% | 1.59% | -1.80% |
| 2024 | 0.56% | -1.12% | 9.02% | 1.56% | -2.43% | -7.99% | 7.16% | 7.67% | 2.16% | -7.12% | -2.59% | -3.76% |
| 2023 | -5.96% | 1.47% | 7.48% | 4.36% | -5.04% | -8.86% | -1.80% | -9.47% | -5.42% | 2.93% | -2.42% | 2.32% |
| 2022 | 2.69% | -1.82% | 0.43% | 5.21% | -1.24% | 8.02% | -0.17% | 2.69% | -0.25% | 7.23% | 4.56% | -1.70% |
| 2021 | -0.33% | -5.32% | 11.47% | 0.08% | 3.29% | -3.07% | -2.57% | -1.78% | 3.48% | 4.17% | -0.05% | 9.08% |
| 2020 | -6.17% | 7.69% | 14.49% | 5.26% | -2.21% | 3.43% | 1.07% | -3.55% | -3.35% | 2.88% | -3.32% | |
| Avg | -1.15% | -2.06% | 2.43% | 2.58% | -1.26% | -2.24% | 0.89% | 0.15% | -0.23% | -0.42% | 0.66% | 0.14% |
GIS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GIS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
GIS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
GIS Distribution of Daily % Changes