Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.1% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +10.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -34.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
GE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
GE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.40% | 11.56% | -16.97% | 2.17% | 11.67% | 15.43% | -3.54% | -6.77% | -4.74% | |||
| 2025 | 22.05% | 1.68% | -3.12% | 0.69% | 22.02% | 4.67% | 5.47% | 1.52% | 9.44% | 2.70% | -3.40% | 3.33% |
| 2024 | 3.75% | 18.48% | 11.88% | 15.72% | 2.05% | -3.74% | 7.25% | 2.60% | 8.15% | -8.91% | 6.04% | -8.29% |
| 2023 | 23.04% | 5.26% | 12.96% | 3.53% | 2.59% | 8.19% | 4.07% | 0.19% | -3.35% | -1.74% | 12.12% | 4.85% |
| 2022 | 0.01% | 1.09% | -4.11% | -18.52% | 5.02% | -18.58% | 16.08% | -0.64% | -15.60% | 25.68% | 10.49% | -2.44% |
| 2021 | -1.11% | 17.42% | 4.78% | -0.08% | 7.16% | -4.19% | -3.79% | 1.75% | -2.18% | 1.79% | -9.42% | -0.46% |
| 2020 | -12.61% | -26.95% | -14.36% | -3.38% | 4.11% | -11.13% | 4.45% | -1.57% | 19.10% | 37.20% | 6.19% | |
| Avg | 7.89% | 6.12% | -3.08% | -1.55% | 6.73% | 0.84% | 2.06% | 0.44% | -0.85% | 6.44% | 8.84% | 0.53% |
GE Distribution of Daily % Changes