Seasonality
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Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +6.5% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -3.6% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +6.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.2% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -15.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
FOX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.99% | -21.11% | 3.20% | 7.38% | 0.65% | -18.38% | 10.89% | 18.23% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.25% | 11.26% | -2.01% | -12.27% | 8.74% | 2.69% | -0.95% | 6.67% | 5.55% | 1.96% | -0.26% | 11.45% |
| 2024 | 8.54% | -8.76% | 5.56% | 0.21% | 11.37% | 0.25% | 10.65% | 8.47% | 1.68% | 0.41% | 14.81% | 2.26% |
| 2023 | 11.42% | 2.52% | -2.91% | -2.46% | -4.35% | 9.17% | -1.51% | -2.00% | -5.37% | -3.36% | -0.90% | -0.04% |
| 2022 | 8.49% | 2.90% | -4.58% | -8.38% | -1.59% | -9.20% | 4.04% | 3.14% | -9.87% | -4.56% | 12.21% | -6.78% |
| 2021 | 3.50% | 6.83% | 10.03% | 4.15% | -0.27% | -2.98% | -5.57% | 4.92% | 7.19% | -0.43% | -9.09% | 1.99% |
| 2020 | -16.18% | -24.31% | 11.71% | 12.60% | -6.74% | -3.99% | 7.88% | 1.45% | -6.54% | 8.57% | 1.76% | |
| Avg | 6.53% | -3.22% | -2.15% | 0.05% | 3.88% | -3.60% | 1.94% | 4.85% | 0.11% | -2.09% | 4.22% | 1.77% |
FOX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FOX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FOX Distribution of Daily % Changes