Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.34% | -0.03% | 3.87% | 39.86% | 64.70% | 7.49% | -29.81% | 10.91% | ||||
| 2025 | 8.49% | -9.03% | -12.69% | 3.81% | 23.18% | 18.01% | -0.10% | 7.52% | 8.11% | 7.85% | -5.45% | 2.22% |
| 2024 | 3.42% | 18.58% | 1.63% | 0.14% | 15.64% | -10.99% | 9.02% | 1.06% | 2.89% | 3.71% | 12.40% | -1.49% |
| 2023 | 8.81% | -2.53% | 1.10% | -10.60% | 23.43% | 8.86% | -1.01% | 0.84% | -2.21% | -4.67% | -1.05% | 19.69% |
| 2022 | -11.73% | 1.92% | 12.49% | -11.11% | 3.52% | -15.23% | 16.10% | 6.01% | -6.46% | 17.53% | 12.26% | -2.37% |
| 2021 | -1.89% | 3.12% | 0.66% | -4.97% | 5.00% | -2.19% | 0.56% | 3.39% | -4.84% | -4.41% | 1.18% | 7.19% |
| 2020 | -15.51% | -24.57% | 16.47% | -0.51% | 5.56% | 12.10% | -5.48% | 2.58% | 27.02% | 14.70% | 10.78% | |
| Avg | 1.91% | -0.50% | -2.50% | 4.80% | 19.28% | 1.65% | 0.98% | 2.22% | 0.01% | 7.84% | 5.67% | 6.00% |
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +19.3% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -2.5% with only a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +25.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +83.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
FLEX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FLEX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FLEX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FLEX Distribution of Daily % Changes