Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +15.9% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +21.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -39.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
FICO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FICO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FICO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FICO Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -13.45% | -3.68% | -24.25% | -3.98% | 22.01% | -4.46% | -6.01% | -3.31% | ||||
| 2025 | -5.90% | 0.68% | -2.24% | 7.89% | -13.24% | 5.89% | -21.40% | 5.91% | -1.65% | 10.89% | 8.82% | -6.38% |
| 2024 | 2.99% | 5.93% | -1.60% | -9.31% | 13.82% | 15.41% | 7.48% | 8.14% | 12.32% | 2.55% | 19.16% | -16.17% |
| 2023 | 11.26% | 1.72% | 3.73% | 3.59% | 8.20% | 2.73% | 3.55% | 7.95% | -3.99% | -2.61% | 28.58% | 7.03% |
| 2022 | 14.14% | -4.81% | -1.00% | -19.93% | 9.65% | -2.11% | 15.25% | -2.73% | -8.32% | 16.22% | 29.42% | -3.41% |
| 2021 | -11.92% | 1.65% | 6.23% | 7.28% | -2.94% | -0.67% | 4.22% | -12.25% | -13.44% | 0.07% | -11.32% | 22.81% |
| 2020 | -6.55% | -18.17% | 14.71% | 14.08% | 3.82% | 5.06% | -4.19% | 1.09% | -7.98% | 20.78% | 8.09% | |
| Avg | -0.48% | -0.72% | -5.33% | 0.04% | 7.37% | 2.94% | 1.16% | 0.47% | -2.33% | 3.19% | 15.91% | 1.99% |