Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -1.8% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.4% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +59.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.97% | -1.54% | 6.62% | 11.95% | 18.39% | 8.48% | -3.22% | 0.16% | ||||
| 2025 | 18.21% | -1.62% | -8.95% | -0.57% | 7.80% | 3.13% | 6.49% | -0.09% | 3.21% | -21.70% | -5.49% | 6.73% |
| 2024 | 2.64% | 1.92% | 1.27% | -12.81% | 2.21% | 1.93% | 18.24% | -0.24% | 8.39% | 6.21% | 7.04% | 0.45% |
| 2023 | 2.89% | -3.17% | 1.90% | -7.78% | 9.84% | -0.89% | 8.19% | 3.43% | -1.54% | -5.93% | 12.93% | 4.55% |
| 2022 | -15.16% | -3.26% | 4.03% | -19.88% | -2.61% | -6.13% | 9.36% | -6.15% | -7.85% | -1.26% | 8.19% | -7.18% |
| 2021 | 11.37% | -3.05% | 9.81% | -10.48% | -0.71% | 0.66% | 10.63% | -1.42% | -2.35% | 6.22% | 7.78% | 7.53% |
| 2020 | -1.78% | -11.10% | 30.60% | 4.06% | -3.75% | -2.57% | -2.63% | -7.22% | 8.28% | 22.47% | 8.06% | |
| Avg | 4.65% | -1.79% | 0.51% | -1.28% | 5.57% | 0.49% | 6.73% | -1.18% | -1.23% | -1.36% | 8.82% | 3.36% |
FFIV - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FFIV - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FFIV Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FFIV Distribution of Daily % Changes