Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.5% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -9.6% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -7.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
FERG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FERG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FERG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.85% | 3.29% | -10.21% | 14.77% | -15.27% | 5.03% | -1.26% | -3.83% | -1.49% | |||
| 2025 | 4.35% | -2.00% | -9.27% | 5.89% | 7.47% | 19.88% | 2.56% | 3.50% | -2.48% | 10.65% | 1.28% | -11.54% |
| 2024 | -2.70% | 12.56% | 3.70% | -3.91% | -1.98% | -5.52% | 14.98% | -7.61% | -3.09% | -0.92% | 9.75% | -19.23% |
| 2023 | 12.11% | 1.24% | -6.64% | 5.29% | 2.90% | 9.10% | 2.74% | -0.04% | 1.80% | -8.25% | 14.07% | 13.17% |
| 2022 | -11.48% | -4.12% | -11.40% | -7.02% | -4.13% | -7.40% | 13.88% | -8.40% | -10.88% | 7.98% | 7.29% | 8.93% |
| 2021 | 0.35% | 1.54% | 1.66% | 5.30% | 7.49% | 2.62% | 0.37% | 3.15% | -3.42% | 9.59% | 0.81% | 17.69% |
| 2020 | -0.33% | -35.10% | 21.54% | 10.77% | 3.72% | 8.76% | 9.52% | 2.95% | -0.35% | 11.75% | 7.73% | |
| Avg | 2.75% | 1.74% | -9.61% | 5.98% | 1.04% | 3.92% | 6.00% | -0.53% | -2.52% | 3.12% | 7.49% | 2.79% |
FERG Distribution of Daily % Changes