Seasonality
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FER Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.9% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +9.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -13.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
FER Distribution of Daily % Changes
FER - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.23% | 9.40% | -12.54% | 5.93% | -0.34% | 0.88% | -5.12% | -1.49% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.14% | 3.87% | 0.74% | 10.53% | 4.04% | 4.42% | -4.61% | 7.30% | 6.88% | 6.27% | 6.61% | -1.69% |
| 2024 | 7.31% | 4.03% | 1.24% | -9.75% | 13.03% | -3.96% | 2.39% | 5.63% | 2.69% | -6.90% | 4.21% | 1.68% |
| 2023 | 19.10% | -8.30% | 0.36% | 7.83% | 4.91% | -2.15% | 1.03% | -1.80% | 1.17% | 8.60% | 1.11% | 7.76% |
| 2022 | -6.00% | 9.09% | -8.69% | -3.69% | 1.20% | 3.43% | 4.87% | -0.59% | -5.12% | -13.28% | 14.81% | 1.57% |
| 2021 | -12.14% | 2.51% | 1.35% | 13.06% | 2.53% | 0.34% | 2.78% | -5.41% | 2.17% | 6.12% | -10.85% | 0.00% |
| 2020 | 1.25% | -23.62% | -3.69% | 14.54% | 5.58% | -7.36% | 4.28% | -10.71% | -6.73% | 23.19% | 0.90% | |
| Avg | 2.61% | 3.12% | -5.88% | 2.89% | 5.70% | 1.22% | -0.86% | 1.57% | -0.49% | -0.99% | 6.51% | 1.70% |
FER - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data