Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
FDX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.8% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.8% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +41.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.56% | 20.09% | -7.59% | 13.23% | 2.09% | -5.27% | -1.83% | 8.86% | ||||
| 2025 | -5.85% | -0.74% | -6.77% | -13.72% | 3.69% | 4.90% | -1.68% | 3.39% | 2.71% | 7.64% | 8.61% | 5.32% |
| 2024 | -4.62% | 3.18% | 16.96% | -9.65% | -2.99% | 18.71% | 0.80% | -1.15% | -7.95% | 0.06% | 10.52% | -6.59% |
| 2023 | 11.93% | 4.83% | 13.06% | -0.31% | -4.30% | 14.37% | 8.89% | -3.31% | 2.00% | -9.37% | 7.80% | -1.80% |
| 2022 | -4.94% | -9.59% | 4.46% | -14.11% | 13.00% | 1.46% | 2.81% | -9.56% | -29.19% | 7.95% | 13.69% | -4.31% |
| 2021 | -9.35% | 8.14% | 11.90% | 2.21% | 8.44% | -5.00% | -6.16% | -5.09% | -17.23% | 7.41% | -2.19% | 12.62% |
| 2020 | -2.40% | -13.67% | 4.54% | 2.99% | 7.91% | 20.10% | 30.55% | 14.74% | 3.16% | 10.45% | -9.20% | |
| Avg | -0.21% | 3.36% | 2.62% | -2.54% | 3.28% | 5.30% | 3.28% | 2.47% | -5.82% | 2.81% | 8.15% | -0.66% |
FDX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FDX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FDX Distribution of Daily % Changes