Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.9% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -5.1% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.0% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +9.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -12.35% | -14.32% | 0.08% | 4.88% | 8.39% | -6.27% | 14.39% | 7.71% | ||||
| 2025 | -1.22% | -2.45% | -1.54% | -4.93% | 6.28% | -2.40% | -9.92% | -7.07% | -23.26% | -6.87% | 4.34% | 4.66% |
| 2024 | -0.24% | -2.60% | -1.77% | -8.25% | -2.78% | 0.99% | 1.18% | 2.62% | 8.75% | -1.26% | 8.29% | -2.12% |
| 2023 | 5.42% | -1.78% | 0.13% | -0.82% | -6.27% | 4.09% | 8.58% | 0.54% | 0.19% | -1.23% | 5.22% | 5.20% |
| 2022 | -13.19% | -3.54% | 6.91% | -7.06% | -5.16% | 0.73% | 11.73% | 1.06% | -7.67% | 6.34% | 8.63% | -13.02% |
| 2021 | -9.07% | 0.78% | 1.54% | 8.95% | -0.31% | 0.37% | 6.46% | 6.65% | 3.83% | 12.44% | 5.75% | 3.72% |
| 2020 | -6.80% | -2.00% | 5.49% | 12.11% | 6.82% | 5.43% | 1.40% | -4.43% | -8.47% | 9.15% | -0.38% | |
| Avg | -5.11% | -4.39% | 0.48% | -0.25% | 1.75% | 0.62% | 5.41% | 0.87% | -3.76% | 0.16% | 6.90% | -0.32% |
FDS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FDS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FDS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FDS Distribution of Daily % Changes