Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.88% | 13.03% | -13.66% | -1.48% | 13.72% | -4.29% | -0.17% | 6.16% | ||||
| 2025 | -5.50% | 2.96% | 2.57% | -4.41% | 6.80% | 12.66% | -6.87% | 10.34% | -11.67% | 6.70% | 3.07% | 18.17% |
| 2024 | -6.43% | -4.74% | 24.36% | 6.53% | 5.59% | -7.83% | -6.29% | -2.49% | 12.74% | -9.54% | -1.82% | -13.85% |
| 2023 | 17.81% | -8.18% | -0.15% | -6.99% | -9.42% | 16.48% | 12.04% | -10.62% | -6.56% | -9.05% | 10.48% | 14.07% |
| 2022 | -10.51% | 26.14% | 5.94% | -18.22% | -3.63% | -25.13% | 8.44% | -6.18% | -7.67% | 16.56% | 25.59% | -4.52% |
| 2021 | 3.42% | 26.01% | -2.89% | 14.77% | 13.29% | -13.13% | 2.88% | -4.49% | -10.61% | 16.20% | -1.70% | 12.54% |
| 2020 | -10.27% | -32.23% | 30.81% | 2.72% | 27.56% | 11.67% | 20.82% | 0.19% | 10.87% | 34.89% | 11.24% | |
| Avg | 2.95% | 6.42% | -2.29% | 3.00% | 4.15% | 0.90% | 3.10% | 1.23% | -3.93% | 5.29% | 11.75% | 6.28% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +11.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.9% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +23.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +12.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
FCX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FCX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FCX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FCX Distribution of Daily % Changes