Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.6% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.5% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +16.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.1% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 188 of the year, the current YTD return is +2.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
FANG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FANG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FANG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.06% | 6.18% | 14.30% | 3.96% | -6.37% | -8.20% | 15.46% | -0.67% | -8.31% | |||
| 2025 | 0.32% | -3.29% | 1.29% | -17.43% | 2.63% | 2.12% | 8.20% | 0.79% | -3.80% | 0.06% | 7.30% | -1.48% |
| 2024 | -0.86% | 18.72% | 10.41% | 1.49% | 0.05% | 0.47% | 1.06% | -2.40% | -11.64% | 2.53% | 0.96% | -7.75% |
| 2023 | 6.83% | -3.79% | -1.85% | 5.20% | -10.02% | 3.31% | 12.15% | 3.61% | 2.04% | 3.51% | -1.60% | 0.43% |
| 2022 | 16.98% | 9.46% | -0.30% | -7.92% | 23.33% | -20.31% | 5.67% | 6.55% | -9.62% | 30.43% | -4.49% | -7.59% |
| 2021 | 17.13% | 22.21% | 6.68% | 11.21% | -1.54% | 17.26% | -17.85% | 0.59% | 22.73% | 13.22% | 0.00% | 1.05% |
| 2020 | -16.67% | -57.48% | 66.18% | -1.30% | -1.78% | -4.69% | -1.43% | -22.69% | -13.81% | 55.73% | 21.12% | |
| Avg | 8.24% | 4.69% | -3.85% | 8.96% | 0.97% | -1.02% | 2.86% | 1.01% | -4.47% | 5.99% | 9.65% | 0.96% |
FANG Distribution of Daily % Changes