Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.79% | 2.61% | -18.10% | 4.68% | 46.19% | -20.30% | 5.61% | -1.05% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.82% | -2.16% | 5.03% | -0.20% | 5.21% | 4.53% | 2.03% | 7.75% | 1.61% | 9.78% | 2.31% | -1.20% |
| 2024 | -3.86% | 9.01% | 6.75% | -8.51% | 1.05% | 3.38% | -13.72% | 5.03% | -5.63% | -2.56% | 9.63% | -11.05% |
| 2023 | 16.17% | -5.03% | 4.39% | -4.54% | 1.01% | 26.08% | -11.74% | -8.18% | 2.39% | -20.27% | 5.23% | 18.81% |
| 2022 | -1.76% | -13.50% | -3.70% | -15.71% | -3.39% | -18.64% | 31.99% | 4.78% | -26.51% | 19.38% | 5.05% | -16.33% |
| 2021 | 19.80% | 11.11% | 4.70% | -5.80% | 25.91% | 2.27% | -6.12% | -6.59% | 8.67% | 20.62% | 12.92% | 8.23% |
| 2020 | -21.09% | -30.60% | 5.38% | 12.18% | 6.48% | 8.72% | 3.18% | -2.35% | 16.07% | 17.46% | -3.19% | |
| Avg | 6.33% | -2.72% | -4.50% | -3.53% | 12.59% | 0.54% | 2.39% | 0.99% | -3.63% | 7.17% | 8.77% | -0.79% |
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +12.6% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.5% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
F - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
F - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
F Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
F Distribution of Daily % Changes