Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +4.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +11.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.95% | 9.47% | -12.17% | 9.30% | 0.68% | 1.78% | 1.89% | -0.09% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.94% | -0.94% | -1.56% | -1.33% | 3.16% | -1.39% | -8.87% | 6.86% | -0.75% | -5.25% | -0.28% | -1.02% |
| 2024 | -9.91% | -2.40% | 5.43% | -8.65% | 7.81% | 8.46% | 2.71% | 10.89% | 2.74% | -9.37% | 4.69% | -11.59% |
| 2023 | 7.24% | 4.32% | -0.02% | -6.68% | -5.11% | 4.33% | -5.61% | -7.80% | -5.05% | -14.80% | 25.66% | 24.55% |
| 2022 | -12.59% | -5.07% | 10.12% | -7.59% | -6.21% | -3.63% | 11.40% | 4.86% | -12.42% | 2.74% | -9.44% | -7.53% |
| 2021 | -1.79% | 10.47% | 6.27% | 12.18% | 0.75% | 10.04% | 6.30% | 7.33% | -9.52% | 17.49% | 1.33% | 14.03% |
| 2020 | -9.32% | -3.68% | -7.85% | 9.64% | -3.61% | 11.88% | 3.11% | 1.23% | 8.37% | -2.78% | 3.62% | |
| Avg | -1.36% | 0.93% | 0.63% | -1.52% | 1.53% | 2.28% | 2.81% | 4.21% | -3.96% | -0.14% | 3.20% | 3.68% |
EXR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EXR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EXR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EXR Distribution of Daily % Changes