Seasonality
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EXPE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.52% | -18.56% | 7.28% | 7.57% | -8.90% | 13.33% | 15.19% | 12.88% | ||||
| 2025 | -8.25% | 15.80% | -14.91% | -6.64% | 6.51% | 1.16% | 6.84% | 19.41% | -0.49% | 2.92% | 16.42% | 10.80% |
| 2024 | -2.28% | -7.76% | 0.68% | -2.27% | -16.17% | 11.63% | 1.33% | 8.94% | 6.42% | 5.60% | 18.11% | 0.93% |
| 2023 | 30.48% | -4.66% | -10.96% | -3.16% | 1.86% | 14.29% | 12.01% | -11.54% | -4.91% | -7.55% | 42.91% | 11.46% |
| 2022 | 1.42% | 6.99% | -0.22% | -10.69% | -25.99% | -26.68% | 11.83% | -3.21% | -8.73% | -0.23% | 14.30% | -18.01% |
| 2021 | -6.27% | 29.73% | 6.91% | 2.39% | 0.41% | -7.48% | -1.73% | -10.18% | 13.43% | 0.31% | -2.02% | 12.19% |
| 2020 | -9.06% | -42.73% | 26.14% | 11.98% | 3.42% | -1.45% | 21.16% | -6.58% | 2.68% | 32.23% | 6.35% | |
| Avg | 1.43% | 1.78% | -7.71% | 1.91% | -4.33% | 1.38% | 6.29% | 4.10% | -0.14% | 0.62% | 20.32% | 3.95% |
EXPE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EXPE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EXPE Distribution of Daily % Changes
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +20.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -7.7% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +24.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.5% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +20.4% vs the historical average for the same point.