Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.73% | 10.47% | -0.06% | -6.18% | -0.76% | 3.11% | -1.72% | 0.09% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.27% | 11.53% | 4.25% | 1.78% | -5.73% | -0.91% | 3.50% | -1.94% | 3.04% | 2.47% | 3.06% | -7.49% |
| 2024 | -3.04% | 2.96% | 5.95% | 0.03% | 0.92% | -7.83% | 7.48% | 3.44% | 6.46% | -3.08% | 1.68% | -4.85% |
| 2023 | -2.41% | -3.44% | 3.71% | 1.31% | -5.78% | 2.75% | 2.75% | -3.30% | -5.81% | 3.04% | -0.18% | -6.78% |
| 2022 | 0.33% | 3.82% | 11.91% | -1.78% | 5.82% | -7.79% | 2.58% | -4.85% | -14.69% | 3.02% | 8.14% | 4.50% |
| 2021 | -1.56% | -7.12% | 14.42% | 2.74% | 1.30% | -1.80% | 5.62% | 5.58% | -1.39% | 10.03% | -0.17% | 9.54% |
| 2020 | -8.72% | -14.61% | 0.73% | 4.44% | -5.27% | 6.39% | -3.45% | -3.12% | 11.55% | 3.89% | 2.80% | |
| Avg | 0.39% | 1.36% | 3.65% | -0.20% | 0.03% | -2.54% | 3.80% | -0.75% | -2.58% | 4.50% | 2.74% | -0.38% |
EXC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +4.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.6% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -3.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
EXC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EXC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EXC Distribution of Daily % Changes