Seasonality
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ETR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +6.2% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -2.9% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.0% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +10.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.74% | 12.44% | 4.90% | 4.94% | -7.01% | 5.33% | -6.30% | 0.80% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.94% | 8.47% | -2.08% | -2.71% | 0.86% | -0.19% | 8.79% | -1.94% | 5.79% | 3.11% | 2.17% | -5.22% |
| 2024 | -1.41% | 2.99% | 4.05% | 0.94% | 6.59% | -4.88% | 8.38% | 5.08% | 9.05% | 17.61% | 1.72% | -2.90% |
| 2023 | -3.75% | -4.02% | 4.73% | -0.15% | -7.79% | -0.85% | 5.47% | -6.22% | -2.89% | 3.34% | 7.34% | -0.22% |
| 2022 | -0.78% | -5.01% | 10.97% | 1.80% | 2.11% | -6.38% | 2.21% | 1.00% | -12.72% | 6.47% | 9.62% | -3.24% |
| 2021 | -4.52% | -8.03% | 14.58% | 9.87% | -2.84% | -5.28% | 3.23% | 8.42% | -10.22% | 3.74% | -1.64% | 12.27% |
| 2020 | -10.48% | -19.62% | 1.64% | 7.64% | -7.87% | 12.07% | -4.83% | -0.62% | 2.73% | 8.48% | -8.28% | |
| Avg | 0.04% | -0.52% | 2.50% | 2.33% | -0.06% | -2.87% | 4.84% | 0.25% | -1.93% | 6.17% | 4.61% | -1.26% |
ETR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ETR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ETR Distribution of Daily % Changes