Seasonality
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ERIE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +7.2% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -3.8% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +14.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.7% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +2.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
ERIE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.75% | -4.79% | -6.73% | -12.38% | -2.68% | 12.52% | 1.53% | 5.76% | ||||
| 2025 | -1.92% | 6.23% | -2.11% | -14.13% | -0.03% | -3.27% | 3.14% | -0.52% | -10.22% | -7.63% | 0.97% | -2.99% |
| 2024 | 3.65% | 17.65% | -1.31% | -4.40% | -5.29% | -0.01% | 22.15% | 15.21% | 6.22% | -16.66% | -1.84% | -6.43% |
| 2023 | -1.28% | -3.67% | -1.58% | -5.70% | -1.49% | -1.91% | 6.29% | 25.58% | 5.40% | -5.61% | 7.04% | 13.29% |
| 2022 | -3.89% | -4.89% | 0.59% | -8.44% | 4.66% | 14.57% | 6.42% | 5.69% | 3.43% | 16.17% | 9.88% | -11.92% |
| 2021 | -0.60% | -0.41% | -8.75% | -2.67% | -6.02% | -3.87% | -3.86% | -4.22% | 0.75% | 16.01% | -9.72% | 3.69% |
| 2020 | -14.16% | 3.72% | 20.84% | 1.22% | 6.47% | 10.05% | 1.58% | -1.48% | 11.25% | -3.12% | 9.75% | |
| Avg | -0.80% | -0.58% | -2.31% | -3.84% | -1.37% | 3.50% | 6.53% | 7.22% | 0.68% | 2.26% | 0.54% | 0.90% |
ERIE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ERIE Distribution of Daily % Changes