Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.73% | 2.97% | -13.09% | 7.19% | 2.82% | -0.47% | 4.66% | 9.28% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.86% | -6.02% | -9.84% | -4.13% | 14.08% | 11.69% | 9.14% | -8.93% | -0.62% | 6.40% | -4.02% | -0.49% |
| 2024 | -5.75% | 17.06% | 6.15% | -4.97% | 4.54% | -1.78% | 6.31% | -9.55% | 3.78% | -1.01% | 22.98% | -6.54% |
| 2023 | -6.08% | -7.77% | 5.36% | -4.45% | -6.11% | 16.36% | 1.06% | 8.14% | -1.71% | -7.87% | 0.52% | 9.48% |
| 2022 | -1.10% | 1.59% | 5.52% | -8.03% | -1.07% | -10.29% | 13.24% | -8.71% | -10.42% | 18.27% | 11.22% | 0.30% |
| 2021 | -1.27% | 8.90% | 5.03% | 0.30% | 6.32% | 0.57% | 4.83% | 5.08% | -10.71% | 2.98% | -8.97% | 5.84% |
| 2020 | -9.90% | -25.67% | 19.69% | 8.04% | 1.66% | -0.03% | 12.82% | -5.61% | -1.19% | 19.37% | 4.62% | |
| Avg | 0.23% | 0.98% | -3.79% | 0.80% | 4.09% | 2.53% | 5.60% | -0.19% | -4.22% | 2.93% | 6.85% | 2.20% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.2% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.6% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +16.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
EMR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EMR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EMR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EMR Distribution of Daily % Changes