Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +8.7% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jul shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jul averages -3.2% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.8% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +5.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.37% | -7.44% | -7.95% | 28.58% | 4.46% | -1.24% | -2.82% | 6.51% | ||||
| 2025 | 7.26% | 0.30% | 10.05% | -3.31% | -8.74% | 1.78% | -27.22% | 12.57% | 1.96% | -1.83% | 6.64% | 4.17% |
| 2024 | 4.64% | 1.58% | 3.78% | 1.94% | 1.87% | 0.93% | -1.81% | 4.67% | -6.34% | -21.97% | 0.30% | -8.98% |
| 2023 | -2.53% | -6.06% | -1.79% | 1.92% | -4.44% | -0.47% | 6.15% | -6.28% | -1.16% | 3.37% | 6.53% | -1.35% |
| 2022 | -4.86% | 2.46% | 9.02% | 2.18% | 1.53% | -5.06% | -1.14% | 1.68% | -6.12% | 20.37% | -2.53% | -3.51% |
| 2021 | -7.51% | 2.09% | 18.79% | 5.69% | 4.96% | -3.85% | 0.58% | -2.31% | -0.32% | 16.72% | -6.64% | 14.43% |
| 2020 | -3.09% | -11.36% | 23.65% | 4.77% | -10.30% | 4.11% | 2.82% | -4.25% | 1.57% | 14.19% | 3.38% | |
| Avg | -0.73% | -1.45% | 2.94% | 8.67% | 0.63% | -2.60% | -3.16% | 2.19% | -2.71% | 3.04% | 3.08% | 1.35% |
ELV - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ELV - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ELV Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ELV Distribution of Daily % Changes