Seasonality
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Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +9.2% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.2% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -7.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.08% | -4.74% | -34.44% | 6.88% | 16.40% | -11.24% | 6.27% | 2.62% | ||||
| 2025 | 11.27% | -13.39% | -8.22% | -9.15% | 12.21% | 20.71% | 15.52% | -1.72% | -3.57% | 9.73% | -2.34% | 11.32% |
| 2024 | -9.75% | 13.07% | 3.75% | -4.83% | -15.46% | -13.75% | -6.38% | -7.31% | 8.76% | -30.85% | 5.11% | 3.97% |
| 2023 | 11.68% | -12.04% | 1.40% | 0.11% | -25.16% | 6.71% | -8.34% | -10.45% | -9.95% | -10.85% | -0.39% | 14.54% |
| 2022 | -15.78% | -4.76% | -8.10% | -3.03% | -3.32% | 0.01% | 7.24% | -6.64% | -15.13% | -7.14% | 17.97% | 5.22% |
| 2021 | -11.10% | 21.01% | 1.75% | 7.89% | -2.15% | 3.77% | 4.95% | 2.15% | -11.91% | 8.14% | 2.57% | 11.48% |
| 2020 | -5.68% | -13.21% | 10.71% | 11.94% | -4.45% | 4.70% | 12.49% | -1.56% | 0.65% | 11.92% | 8.51% | |
| Avg | -0.60% | -0.93% | -8.15% | 1.23% | -0.79% | 0.25% | 3.42% | -1.91% | -5.56% | -5.05% | 5.80% | 9.17% |
EL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EL Distribution of Daily % Changes