Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.2% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -6.5% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.3% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +25.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.29% | 20.01% | -2.09% | -3.90% | 0.65% | 6.45% | -0.28% | -2.67% | ||||
| 2025 | -31.64% | 0.81% | 8.23% | -7.79% | 4.00% | -7.28% | 2.62% | 7.69% | -1.51% | 1.72% | 6.34% | 1.92% |
| 2024 | -5.61% | 0.80% | 5.19% | 0.47% | 8.15% | -6.56% | 12.63% | 8.77% | 0.07% | -4.52% | 6.49% | -9.01% |
| 2023 | 8.30% | -3.90% | 7.75% | 4.26% | -8.26% | 2.86% | 4.73% | -4.32% | -7.02% | -0.36% | 6.23% | 7.89% |
| 2022 | -8.00% | 1.00% | 11.65% | -1.87% | 1.63% | -9.54% | 8.36% | 0.00% | -15.55% | 6.12% | 11.03% | -3.46% |
| 2021 | -7.42% | -7.17% | 9.74% | 1.45% | -6.02% | 3.49% | -4.65% | 6.13% | -2.97% | 13.45% | 3.73% | 5.63% |
| 2020 | -12.23% | -17.50% | 7.15% | -1.02% | -6.54% | 3.70% | -5.73% | -1.92% | 10.23% | 9.49% | 3.48% | |
| Avg | -6.51% | -0.10% | 3.28% | -0.03% | -0.13% | -2.45% | 3.87% | 2.09% | -4.82% | 4.44% | 7.22% | 1.07% |
EIX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
EIX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EIX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EIX Distribution of Daily % Changes