Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.42% | 9.35% | -13.50% | -2.04% | -1.77% | 9.13% | -0.35% | -0.55% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.77% | 7.52% | -5.51% | -0.82% | 5.64% | 1.69% | -2.85% | 5.84% | -0.91% | -6.38% | 7.32% | -4.33% |
| 2024 | -0.07% | 13.43% | 2.95% | -2.06% | 2.68% | 2.74% | -3.07% | 9.75% | 1.08% | -3.76% | 1.24% | -5.56% |
| 2023 | 6.37% | 2.93% | 4.22% | 1.40% | -1.66% | 13.44% | -1.90% | 0.37% | -7.56% | -0.98% | 14.30% | 3.75% |
| 2022 | -19.24% | -6.96% | 0.49% | -4.09% | -3.21% | -5.86% | 7.42% | -0.81% | -11.56% | 8.76% | -4.61% | -2.49% |
| 2021 | -5.48% | 2.37% | 2.48% | 4.69% | -4.03% | -4.02% | 7.21% | 2.05% | -7.23% | 6.52% | -0.34% | 6.16% |
| 2020 | -7.99% | -13.42% | 24.17% | 9.86% | -6.20% | -5.97% | 5.35% | 1.64% | -8.13% | 21.00% | -2.39% | |
| Avg | -0.70% | 2.95% | -3.18% | 3.04% | 1.07% | 1.56% | 0.07% | 3.76% | -4.09% | -0.66% | 6.49% | -0.81% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.5% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.1% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +5.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +0.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
ECL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ECL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ECL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ECL Distribution of Daily % Changes