Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +11.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -11.0% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +10.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +10.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +48.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.76% | 42.95% | -1.67% | 0.94% | 25.28% | 14.47% | 7.92% | -25.00% | ||||
| 2025 | 17.82% | -16.07% | 3.44% | -7.47% | -3.74% | 4.54% | -1.46% | -1.86% | -3.55% | -10.42% | 0.55% | -5.07% |
| 2024 | 3.25% | 17.39% | 8.73% | 0.70% | 5.83% | -5.81% | -1.41% | 10.47% | 8.62% | -14.71% | 18.85% | -10.00% |
| 2023 | 10.34% | -0.16% | -1.40% | 11.40% | 3.66% | 7.26% | 1.51% | 0.42% | -7.70% | -18.30% | 31.37% | 3.25% |
| 2022 | -4.74% | 4.06% | 0.30% | -4.19% | -10.04% | -17.98% | 5.25% | 1.34% | -2.95% | -11.79% | 0.99% | 1.27% |
| 2021 | -0.03% | -12.98% | 5.52% | 8.13% | 3.04% | 0.30% | -0.15% | 8.75% | -11.10% | -11.20% | -8.47% | 20.38% |
| 2020 | -2.82% | -2.01% | 3.88% | 2.47% | -2.25% | 10.42% | -0.72% | -1.28% | 0.70% | 27.36% | 6.87% | |
| Avg | 3.81% | 4.62% | 1.84% | 1.91% | 3.79% | 0.08% | 3.16% | 3.07% | -2.99% | -10.95% | 11.78% | 2.78% |
DVA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DVA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DVA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DVA Distribution of Daily % Changes