Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.14% | 7.27% | -8.33% | 3.09% | 1.67% | 1.03% | -0.38% | 10.65% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.38% | 2.67% | 3.64% | -2.73% | 6.76% | 1.76% | -6.83% | 2.61% | -8.01% | -4.60% | -0.32% | 2.47% |
| 2024 | -0.25% | 5.00% | -2.09% | -7.45% | -1.97% | 0.62% | -2.35% | 8.11% | 3.78% | -1.64% | 10.15% | 5.91% |
| 2023 | 7.86% | -3.37% | 8.51% | -1.30% | 4.34% | 5.40% | 1.91% | -7.94% | -7.90% | 2.57% | 7.52% | 5.00% |
| 2022 | -6.45% | 3.83% | -8.45% | -0.06% | -5.11% | -9.50% | 11.20% | -0.63% | 2.11% | 14.36% | 2.69% | -5.89% |
| 2021 | -1.57% | 17.49% | 3.40% | 3.95% | -2.38% | 1.93% | 0.67% | 3.27% | 0.54% | -4.17% | -4.29% | 9.20% |
| 2020 | -16.26% | -44.14% | 35.49% | 4.16% | -1.42% | 0.17% | 14.19% | 16.23% | -8.48% | 17.47% | 10.32% | |
| Avg | 2.35% | 2.38% | -6.78% | 4.43% | 1.07% | -0.03% | 0.63% | 3.27% | 1.13% | -0.33% | 5.54% | 4.50% |
DRI Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DRI Distribution of Daily % Changes
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.5% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.8% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +16.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
DRI - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DRI - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data