Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.7% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -3.9% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +4.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -18.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
DPZ - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.56% | -1.91% | -10.41% | -5.40% | -8.50% | -4.09% | 17.36% | -0.34% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.99% | 9.04% | -5.80% | 6.73% | -3.38% | -4.53% | 2.80% | -1.06% | -5.44% | -7.70% | 5.31% | -0.27% |
| 2024 | 3.39% | 5.19% | 11.20% | 6.52% | -3.91% | 1.81% | -16.97% | -3.38% | 4.23% | -3.81% | 15.10% | -11.56% |
| 2023 | 1.91% | -16.71% | 12.65% | -3.76% | -8.70% | 16.73% | 17.73% | -2.35% | -1.92% | -10.51% | 15.90% | 5.24% |
| 2022 | -19.44% | -4.94% | -5.56% | -16.96% | 7.45% | 7.62% | 0.62% | -5.16% | -16.32% | 7.11% | 17.00% | -10.62% |
| 2021 | -3.31% | -6.54% | 6.42% | 14.83% | 1.07% | 9.51% | 12.65% | -1.64% | -7.55% | 2.52% | 7.19% | 7.86% |
| 2020 | 20.48% | -4.31% | 11.68% | 6.61% | -4.05% | 4.65% | 5.78% | 4.20% | -11.04% | 3.77% | -2.12% | |
| Avg | -2.00% | 0.66% | 0.60% | 1.95% | -1.34% | 3.28% | 5.55% | -1.30% | -3.80% | -3.91% | 10.71% | -1.91% |
DPZ - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DPZ Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DPZ Distribution of Daily % Changes