Seasonality
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Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +4.9% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -6.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +9.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +24.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.84% | 12.86% | 35.54% | -2.79% | -15.80% | -18.93% | 10.71% | 2.58% | ||||
| 2025 | -2.69% | -0.60% | -8.37% | -12.40% | -7.06% | -4.54% | -12.05% | 7.28% | -6.90% | 4.01% | 1.49% | -1.97% |
| 2024 | -2.26% | 5.57% | 3.67% | -1.78% | 2.53% | -7.95% | 2.68% | -0.34% | 1.96% | -9.61% | -9.04% | -9.23% |
| 2023 | 17.78% | -2.44% | -4.16% | -0.77% | -9.07% | 9.18% | 6.03% | -2.14% | -5.50% | -6.25% | 8.52% | 5.97% |
| 2022 | 5.31% | -0.10% | 8.07% | 4.36% | 3.29% | -24.08% | 3.10% | -2.88% | -13.86% | 6.40% | 10.59% | -1.14% |
| 2021 | -6.49% | 15.55% | 7.81% | -2.25% | 10.58% | -7.51% | -1.77% | 2.29% | -8.49% | -2.76% | -0.65% | 3.26% |
| 2020 | -10.84% | -27.64% | 25.48% | 7.09% | 5.60% | 0.74% | 11.58% | 4.28% | -3.32% | 17.99% | 4.70% | |
| Avg | 4.91% | 2.86% | 2.13% | 1.41% | -1.20% | -6.89% | 1.35% | 2.63% | -4.75% | -1.92% | 4.82% | 0.27% |
DOW - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DOW - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DOW Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DOW Distribution of Daily % Changes