Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.2% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -5.6% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +3.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +39.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
DOC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DOC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DOC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DOC Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.84% | 3.20% | -6.52% | -0.99% | 19.06% | 12.30% | 2.47% | -4.76% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.92% | 0.57% | -1.17% | -11.28% | -1.85% | 1.17% | -2.71% | 6.53% | 7.33% | -5.75% | 2.32% | -11.39% |
| 2024 | -6.57% | -7.88% | 11.94% | -0.75% | 8.63% | -1.51% | 11.33% | 3.55% | 2.65% | -1.84% | -0.69% | -7.82% |
| 2023 | 9.61% | -11.47% | -8.69% | 0.00% | -7.86% | 0.70% | 8.61% | -4.39% | -10.79% | -15.30% | 13.36% | 14.32% |
| 2022 | -2.00% | -11.39% | 10.53% | -4.43% | -8.64% | -12.73% | 6.64% | -3.92% | -12.69% | 3.53% | 12.06% | -4.53% |
| 2021 | -1.92% | -0.91% | 9.11% | 8.19% | -1.92% | -0.27% | 11.05% | -1.84% | -7.00% | 6.06% | -6.65% | 9.83% |
| 2020 | -11.21% | -24.62% | 9.60% | -4.26% | 11.85% | -0.98% | 2.61% | -1.77% | -0.66% | 8.39% | 4.75% | |
| Avg | 1.48% | -5.58% | -1.35% | 0.05% | 0.45% | 1.64% | 5.20% | 0.42% | -3.71% | -2.33% | 4.80% | 0.86% |