Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +12.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -9.7% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +21.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.6% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -13.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
DLTR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DLTR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DLTR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.41% | 7.56% | -13.42% | -11.32% | 19.91% | 3.87% | 5.18% | -0.49% | -10.61% | |||
| 2025 | -2.12% | -0.67% | 3.03% | 8.93% | 10.38% | 9.73% | 14.65% | -3.86% | -13.56% | 5.03% | 11.79% | 11.01% |
| 2024 | -8.05% | 12.30% | -9.22% | -11.19% | -0.25% | -9.48% | -2.28% | -19.02% | -16.77% | -8.08% | 10.26% | 5.15% |
| 2023 | 6.18% | -3.26% | -1.19% | 7.08% | -12.25% | 6.39% | 7.55% | -20.72% | -13.00% | 4.36% | 11.25% | 14.94% |
| 2022 | -6.62% | 8.28% | 12.72% | 1.44% | -1.30% | -2.79% | 6.10% | -17.95% | 0.31% | 16.46% | -5.18% | -5.89% |
| 2021 | -5.91% | -3.40% | 16.56% | 0.38% | -15.14% | 2.05% | 0.29% | -9.27% | 5.72% | 12.58% | 24.19% | 5.00% |
| 2020 | -4.64% | -11.51% | 8.44% | 22.84% | -5.30% | 0.72% | 3.13% | -5.12% | -1.12% | 20.95% | -1.10% | |
| Avg | -3.49% | 2.31% | -0.43% | 0.54% | 3.45% | 0.64% | 4.60% | -9.74% | -7.07% | 4.87% | 12.21% | 4.85% |
DLTR Distribution of Daily % Changes