Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.7% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.7% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -1.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
DIS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.85% | -5.99% | -9.11% | 7.65% | -1.85% | -4.76% | -0.06% | 11.08% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.54% | 0.65% | -13.27% | -7.85% | 24.29% | 10.17% | -3.95% | -0.61% | -3.28% | -1.64% | -7.24% | 9.64% |
| 2024 | 6.38% | 16.17% | 9.66% | -9.20% | -6.47% | -4.45% | -5.20% | -3.53% | 6.43% | 0.01% | 22.11% | -4.79% |
| 2023 | 24.87% | -8.19% | 0.52% | 2.37% | -14.19% | 1.50% | -0.44% | -5.86% | -3.14% | 0.67% | 13.60% | -2.27% |
| 2022 | -7.70% | 3.84% | -7.61% | -18.61% | -1.07% | -14.52% | 12.39% | 5.64% | -15.84% | 12.94% | -8.14% | -11.23% |
| 2021 | -7.18% | 12.41% | -2.39% | 0.81% | -3.96% | -1.61% | 0.14% | 3.00% | -6.69% | -0.06% | -14.30% | 6.89% |
| 2020 | -14.94% | -17.89% | 11.96% | 8.46% | -4.94% | 4.87% | 12.77% | -5.91% | -2.28% | 22.07% | 22.41% | |
| Avg | 2.84% | 0.57% | -5.73% | -1.84% | 0.74% | -2.66% | 1.11% | 1.90% | -4.74% | 1.61% | 4.69% | 3.44% |
DIS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DIS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DIS Distribution of Daily % Changes