Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +10.5% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.5% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +11.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -1.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.34% | 8.07% | -14.45% | 12.13% | -4.11% | 10.73% | -12.17% | 4.33% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.49% | -10.37% | 0.25% | -0.62% | -6.26% | 9.20% | 10.80% | 18.96% | -0.01% | -12.03% | 6.99% | -9.42% |
| 2024 | -5.97% | 4.78% | 10.11% | -13.41% | 3.95% | -4.65% | 27.67% | 5.08% | 1.06% | -11.41% | 0.11% | -17.16% |
| 2023 | 10.71% | -6.06% | 5.63% | 12.42% | -2.49% | 13.90% | 4.38% | -6.11% | -9.70% | -2.86% | 22.58% | 19.04% |
| 2022 | -17.73% | -4.03% | -12.75% | -6.60% | 8.33% | -11.92% | 17.89% | -8.54% | -5.34% | 14.15% | 11.86% | 3.95% |
| 2021 | 11.43% | 0.34% | 15.94% | 10.29% | -2.86% | -5.16% | 5.60% | 0.41% | -12.18% | 6.31% | 9.44% | 11.25% |
| 2020 | -9.76% | -36.17% | 38.88% | 17.55% | 0.27% | 19.31% | 8.15% | 5.97% | -11.66% | 11.51% | -7.22% | |
| Avg | 0.55% | -2.43% | -4.49% | 7.58% | 2.02% | 1.77% | 10.50% | 2.99% | -3.37% | -2.92% | 10.42% | 0.07% |
DHI - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DHI - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DHI Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DHI Distribution of Daily % Changes