Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +4.3% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -8.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.3% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -10.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.49% | 8.93% | -24.01% | -1.94% | -4.55% | 4.07% | 10.94% | -2.97% | ||||
| 2025 | -5.54% | 4.39% | 18.54% | 7.24% | 3.80% | 17.61% | -7.82% | 3.68% | -4.97% | -3.96% | 10.98% | 21.26% |
| 2024 | -2.43% | 10.03% | 7.40% | -10.48% | -1.64% | -3.42% | -8.54% | -31.08% | 1.93% | -4.69% | -3.46% | -1.88% |
| 2023 | -5.14% | -7.41% | -2.70% | 5.52% | -9.20% | -15.57% | -0.19% | -17.98% | -23.61% | 13.14% | 10.15% | 3.68% |
| 2022 | -11.44% | -4.86% | 12.25% | 6.95% | -7.24% | 11.39% | 1.45% | -4.43% | 1.03% | 6.58% | 0.25% | -3.47% |
| 2021 | -7.30% | -2.89% | 7.21% | 6.21% | -5.49% | 6.62% | 7.72% | -4.18% | -4.83% | 4.63% | -0.10% | 6.57% |
| 2020 | -2.03% | 0.47% | 16.34% | 9.25% | -0.52% | 0.13% | 6.03% | 3.83% | -0.26% | 4.73% | -3.79% | |
| Avg | -3.89% | 0.88% | 2.74% | 4.26% | -2.15% | 2.88% | 0.53% | -7.99% | -4.44% | 2.57% | 3.76% | 3.73% |
DG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DG Distribution of Daily % Changes
DG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data