Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +22.9% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -3.2% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +36.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +261.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
DELL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DELL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.69% | 29.40% | 10.84% | 27.70% | 101.44% | 2.51% | -5.89% | 21.08% | ||||
| 2025 | -9.74% | -0.81% | -11.30% | 1.31% | 21.26% | 10.18% | 8.67% | -7.94% | 16.06% | 14.68% | -17.69% | -5.60% |
| 2024 | 8.82% | 14.21% | 20.55% | 9.65% | 11.97% | -1.18% | -17.28% | 1.64% | 2.60% | 4.66% | 3.20% | -9.68% |
| 2023 | 1.81% | 0.05% | -1.06% | 9.09% | 3.04% | 20.75% | -1.52% | 6.27% | 22.51% | -2.34% | 13.39% | 0.83% |
| 2022 | 1.14% | -10.30% | -1.51% | -5.68% | 6.23% | -7.47% | -1.73% | -15.02% | -10.76% | 13.47% | 16.64% | -10.20% |
| 2021 | -0.55% | 11.22% | 8.73% | 11.55% | 0.32% | 1.04% | -3.06% | 0.87% | 6.75% | 5.72% | 1.30% | -0.53% |
| 2020 | -17.04% | -2.25% | 7.94% | 16.28% | 10.68% | 8.90% | 10.45% | 2.44% | -10.98% | 14.55% | 6.17% | |
| Avg | -1.20% | 3.82% | 3.43% | 8.80% | 22.93% | 5.22% | -1.70% | -0.62% | 6.60% | 4.20% | 5.23% | -3.17% |
DELL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DELL Distribution of Daily % Changes