Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.7% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.9% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +19.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is -32.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
DECK - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DECK - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DECK Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.12% | -1.73% | -14.65% | 2.11% | 11.40% | -12.79% | -2.43% | -10.12% | -9.65% | |||
| 2025 | -12.67% | -21.43% | -19.77% | -0.88% | -4.79% | -2.32% | 3.01% | 12.68% | -15.26% | -19.60% | 8.01% | 17.77% |
| 2024 | 12.76% | 18.82% | 5.10% | -13.05% | 33.65% | -11.52% | -4.68% | 3.97% | -0.27% | 0.90% | 21.80% | 3.64% |
| 2023 | 7.09% | -2.60% | 7.97% | 6.63% | -0.91% | 11.09% | 3.04% | -2.69% | -2.84% | 16.14% | 11.21% | 0.67% |
| 2022 | -12.58% | -9.86% | -5.15% | -2.93% | 1.06% | -4.92% | 22.66% | 2.67% | -2.79% | 11.94% | 13.99% | 0.07% |
| 2021 | 1.81% | 11.69% | 1.32% | 2.35% | -0.82% | 14.50% | 6.97% | 1.85% | -13.92% | 9.75% | 2.55% | -9.64% |
| 2020 | -8.96% | -22.90% | 11.01% | 22.70% | 7.59% | 6.55% | -2.57% | 7.92% | 15.16% | 0.48% | 12.64% | |
| Avg | 1.92% | -2.01% | -6.87% | 0.75% | 8.90% | 0.23% | 5.02% | 0.83% | -4.53% | 5.71% | 9.67% | 4.19% |
DECK Distribution of Daily % Changes