Seasonality
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CVS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CVS Distribution of Daily % Changes
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.9% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -0.4% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +20.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.33% | 7.22% | -10.11% | 16.99% | 9.23% | 13.71% | 1.57% | -6.96% | ||||
| 2025 | 27.42% | 16.36% | 3.09% | -0.52% | -4.00% | 7.71% | -8.99% | 17.79% | 3.06% | 4.51% | 2.83% | -1.24% |
| 2024 | -4.96% | 0.00% | 7.25% | -14.29% | -11.98% | -0.91% | 3.30% | -5.12% | 9.85% | -9.21% | 6.00% | -25.00% |
| 2023 | -4.68% | -5.30% | -11.05% | -0.53% | -7.20% | 1.62% | 8.93% | -12.75% | 7.14% | -0.31% | -1.54% | 16.20% |
| 2022 | 3.80% | -2.69% | -2.35% | -4.53% | 0.65% | -4.23% | 3.86% | 2.58% | -2.83% | -0.10% | 7.58% | -8.53% |
| 2021 | 5.61% | -4.91% | 10.42% | 2.22% | 13.14% | -3.47% | -0.70% | 4.89% | -1.77% | 5.82% | -0.25% | 15.83% |
| 2020 | -12.74% | 0.25% | 4.61% | 6.53% | -0.92% | -2.37% | -1.30% | -5.99% | -3.14% | 20.86% | 0.75% | |
| Avg | 3.64% | -0.29% | -0.36% | 0.56% | 0.91% | 1.93% | 0.80% | 1.02% | 1.58% | -0.41% | 5.92% | -0.33% |
CVS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CVS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years