Seasonality
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Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +5.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.5% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +12.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +12.2% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -3.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.61% | 10.05% | 4.72% | -3.23% | -3.37% | 8.44% | -7.06% | -2.58% | ||||
| 2025 | 14.59% | -3.51% | 0.19% | -1.49% | 14.21% | 5.52% | -3.22% | 2.86% | -8.62% | -9.15% | 9.81% | -0.39% |
| 2024 | -5.09% | 18.02% | 7.75% | -6.14% | 3.34% | -3.30% | 4.00% | 2.14% | 2.91% | 3.62% | 2.17% | -8.23% |
| 2023 | 9.65% | -3.12% | -3.18% | 1.34% | -12.24% | 7.12% | -1.52% | -10.21% | 1.29% | -5.90% | -5.78% | 6.02% |
| 2022 | 1.69% | 8.51% | 10.47% | 0.37% | 8.83% | -13.54% | 6.30% | 7.01% | -6.97% | 14.33% | 3.02% | -12.48% |
| 2021 | 2.94% | 13.60% | 3.26% | 4.59% | -6.42% | -2.53% | -3.54% | 3.10% | -4.30% | 2.54% | 4.59% | 5.07% |
| 2020 | -5.95% | -13.19% | 11.45% | 4.86% | -1.90% | 6.61% | 0.46% | 0.91% | 14.47% | 16.61% | 1.04% | |
| Avg | 5.40% | 5.37% | 1.43% | 0.98% | 1.32% | -0.03% | 0.22% | 0.89% | -2.46% | 3.32% | 5.07% | -1.49% |
CTVA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CTVA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CTVA Distribution of Daily % Changes
CTVA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data