Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +8.7% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -2.6% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +9.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -6.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
CTAS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CTAS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CTAS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.77% | 5.33% | -15.91% | 3.29% | -1.71% | -0.69% | 20.31% | -1.13% | -4.87% | |||
| 2025 | 9.78% | 3.65% | -0.95% | 2.99% | 7.20% | -1.60% | -0.14% | -5.43% | -2.27% | -10.71% | 1.74% | 1.10% |
| 2024 | 0.32% | 4.21% | 9.29% | -4.18% | 3.18% | 3.29% | 9.09% | 5.61% | 2.29% | -0.03% | 9.91% | -19.08% |
| 2023 | -1.74% | -0.93% | 5.52% | -1.49% | 3.84% | 5.28% | 1.00% | 0.70% | -4.59% | 5.43% | 9.37% | 8.93% |
| 2022 | -11.65% | -3.90% | 13.34% | -6.61% | 0.53% | -6.23% | 13.91% | -4.13% | -4.58% | 10.14% | 8.29% | -2.20% |
| 2021 | -10.00% | 2.17% | 5.23% | 1.12% | 2.66% | 8.05% | 3.19% | 0.65% | -3.82% | 13.78% | -2.31% | 4.97% |
| 2020 | -4.38% | -35.06% | 28.06% | 11.78% | 7.42% | 13.33% | 10.39% | -0.12% | -5.49% | 14.14% | -0.52% | |
| Avg | -1.92% | 0.88% | -2.65% | 3.31% | 3.93% | 2.22% | 8.67% | 0.95% | -2.18% | 2.18% | 6.86% | -1.13% |
CTAS Distribution of Daily % Changes