Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.6% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -2.7% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +31.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
CSX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CSX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CSX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.17% | 13.43% | -3.84% | 10.67% | -0.07% | 5.02% | 6.04% | 0.49% | -6.57% | |||
| 2025 | 1.86% | -2.22% | -8.06% | -4.62% | 13.01% | 3.29% | 8.92% | -8.16% | 9.23% | 1.44% | -1.47% | 2.52% |
| 2024 | 2.97% | 6.61% | -2.29% | -10.39% | 1.96% | -0.89% | 4.93% | -2.02% | 0.76% | -2.58% | 9.01% | -11.71% |
| 2023 | -0.19% | -1.04% | -1.80% | 2.34% | 0.46% | 11.18% | -2.29% | -9.04% | 1.82% | -2.93% | 8.58% | 7.34% |
| 2022 | -8.99% | -0.61% | 10.44% | -8.30% | -7.13% | -8.59% | 11.25% | -1.80% | -15.83% | 9.08% | 12.85% | -5.23% |
| 2021 | -5.50% | 7.07% | 5.32% | 4.49% | -0.35% | -3.88% | 0.75% | 0.93% | -8.58% | 21.62% | -3.92% | 8.48% |
| 2020 | -7.40% | -18.67% | 15.58% | 8.46% | -2.57% | 2.29% | 7.54% | 1.58% | 1.64% | 14.40% | 0.78% | |
| Avg | -0.95% | 2.26% | -2.70% | 1.40% | 2.33% | 0.51% | 4.56% | -1.72% | -1.84% | 4.71% | 6.57% | 0.36% |
CSX Distribution of Daily % Changes