Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +9.5% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -7.5% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +4.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -10.7% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -46.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.54% | -27.43% | -9.61% | -14.20% | -6.96% | -12.05% | 1.55% | 12.59% | ||||
| 2025 | 7.00% | -0.46% | 3.91% | -6.39% | -0.82% | 9.30% | 18.40% | -5.99% | -5.72% | -18.44% | -0.01% | -2.27% |
| 2024 | -4.47% | 4.25% | 11.00% | -5.25% | -14.60% | -5.16% | 5.23% | -0.92% | -2.41% | -3.51% | 11.75% | -11.99% |
| 2023 | 0.80% | -9.29% | -2.56% | 11.76% | 3.18% | 12.09% | -5.65% | -2.36% | -6.22% | -4.53% | 13.12% | 5.24% |
| 2022 | -11.22% | -13.04% | 9.18% | -4.49% | -4.21% | -0.87% | 20.16% | -4.06% | 0.01% | 18.77% | -2.03% | -4.64% |
| 2021 | -2.66% | -8.44% | -0.23% | 3.96% | -0.05% | -3.02% | 7.28% | -4.63% | 1.56% | -0.01% | -9.63% | 1.63% |
| 2020 | 2.24% | -12.04% | 10.40% | 1.32% | 8.20% | 19.57% | -0.14% | -0.01% | -2.93% | 10.56% | 1.51% | |
| Avg | -3.18% | -7.45% | -0.05% | -0.60% | -3.16% | 1.21% | 9.51% | -3.02% | -2.13% | -1.78% | 3.96% | -1.75% |
CSGP - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CSGP Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CSGP Distribution of Daily % Changes
CSGP - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years