Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +7.7% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.5% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.9% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +46.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.22% | 1.46% | -2.35% | 18.57% | 31.61% | -2.46% | -0.88% | -3.72% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.06% | 5.79% | -3.74% | -5.82% | 9.20% | 10.06% | -1.28% | 1.48% | -0.97% | 7.50% | 5.24% | 0.12% |
| 2024 | 0.10% | -3.61% | 3.18% | -5.10% | -1.02% | 2.17% | 2.85% | 4.31% | 5.30% | 3.70% | 8.11% | -0.02% |
| 2023 | 2.98% | -0.51% | 7.97% | -8.94% | 5.12% | 4.17% | 1.34% | 10.20% | -6.26% | -2.33% | -7.19% | 4.42% |
| 2022 | -11.63% | 0.18% | -0.02% | -11.56% | -8.02% | -5.35% | 7.36% | -1.43% | -10.55% | 14.63% | 9.44% | -4.18% |
| 2021 | 0.43% | 0.65% | 15.24% | -0.84% | 3.91% | 0.19% | 5.20% | 6.59% | -7.78% | 3.52% | -2.02% | 15.55% |
| 2020 | -13.14% | -1.55% | 8.83% | 12.84% | -2.47% | 1.78% | -10.36% | -6.70% | -8.02% | 19.83% | 4.02% | |
| Avg | -0.47% | -1.31% | 2.68% | -0.70% | 7.66% | 0.90% | 2.34% | 1.80% | -4.49% | 3.17% | 5.57% | 3.32% |
CSCO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CSCO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CSCO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CSCO Distribution of Daily % Changes