Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +5.2% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -4.8% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -24.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -19.86% | -8.24% | -4.17% | -5.20% | 8.25% | -17.81% | 17.46% | 6.62% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.20% | -12.83% | -9.90% | 0.29% | -1.24% | 2.92% | -5.27% | -0.81% | -7.35% | 9.88% | -11.47% | 15.09% |
| 2024 | 6.82% | 9.87% | -2.35% | -10.70% | -12.83% | 9.67% | 0.82% | -2.28% | 8.40% | 6.45% | 13.25% | 1.43% |
| 2023 | 26.68% | -2.60% | 22.11% | -0.71% | 12.61% | -5.43% | 6.51% | -1.58% | -8.44% | -0.96% | 25.43% | 4.46% |
| 2022 | -8.46% | -9.50% | 0.85% | -17.13% | -8.92% | 3.00% | 11.50% | -15.16% | -7.87% | 13.04% | -1.44% | -17.26% |
| 2021 | 1.36% | -4.02% | -2.14% | 8.71% | 3.38% | 2.59% | -0.96% | 9.65% | 2.24% | 10.50% | -4.92% | -10.82% |
| 2020 | -6.53% | -15.50% | 12.48% | 7.93% | 7.17% | 4.01% | 39.93% | -7.82% | -7.58% | 5.83% | -9.47% | |
| Avg | 1.46% | -4.84% | -1.59% | -1.75% | 1.31% | 0.30% | 4.87% | 4.96% | -3.47% | 5.22% | 4.45% | -2.76% |
CRM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CRM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CRM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CRM Distribution of Daily % Changes