Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.3% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.0% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +14.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -39.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
CRH - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CRH - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CRH Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.92% | -1.99% | -12.08% | 12.65% | -7.80% | -1.65% | -11.21% | -0.36% | -9.61% | |||
| 2025 | 7.04% | 3.52% | -13.86% | 8.47% | -4.09% | 0.70% | 3.98% | 18.33% | 6.15% | -0.67% | 0.72% | 4.03% |
| 2024 | 3.76% | 17.49% | 2.74% | -10.25% | 6.07% | -8.29% | 14.30% | 6.34% | 2.17% | 2.90% | 7.54% | -9.53% |
| 2023 | 18.32% | 0.49% | 9.87% | -4.66% | -1.98% | 17.23% | 8.20% | -4.53% | -4.93% | -1.68% | 17.14% | 12.02% |
| 2022 | -4.53% | -10.95% | -6.49% | -1.20% | 4.83% | -16.08% | 10.83% | -4.15% | -12.29% | 12.35% | 11.43% | -1.39% |
| 2021 | -3.38% | 5.32% | 10.61% | 0.62% | 10.15% | -2.36% | -1.87% | 6.47% | -11.62% | 2.57% | 1.54% | 8.46% |
| 2020 | -9.87% | -18.85% | 12.22% | 6.77% | 6.69% | 6.06% | 1.95% | -2.15% | -2.60% | 11.66% | 8.48% | |
| Avg | 3.22% | 0.57% | -4.01% | 2.55% | 1.99% | -0.54% | 4.33% | 3.44% | -3.78% | 2.14% | 8.34% | 3.68% |
CRH Distribution of Daily % Changes