Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.65% | -6.14% | -12.84% | -0.27% | -1.03% | -13.98% | 3.30% | 8.55% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.94% | -5.40% | 3.27% | 7.85% | -15.65% | -4.68% | -7.62% | 7.68% | -7.87% | -4.36% | -9.37% | 0.44% |
| 2024 | -1.96% | 10.64% | 8.97% | -6.23% | -2.30% | 2.07% | -3.38% | 1.20% | -1.06% | -1.77% | 23.16% | -9.47% |
| 2023 | 9.39% | 5.78% | 6.74% | 5.11% | 10.80% | 4.13% | -3.09% | 1.44% | -3.88% | 1.00% | 15.40% | -2.43% |
| 2022 | -14.75% | -4.93% | 2.11% | -9.42% | 0.77% | -5.13% | 17.89% | -6.60% | -11.07% | 8.10% | 15.74% | -8.52% |
| 2021 | -13.75% | -0.54% | -0.50% | 14.64% | 3.61% | 2.19% | 11.51% | -1.82% | -3.88% | 11.94% | -6.52% | 4.45% |
| 2020 | -16.74% | -18.89% | 16.91% | 11.58% | -6.85% | 11.99% | 10.80% | 1.78% | 4.94% | 4.61% | 10.22% | |
| Avg | -2.75% | -2.47% | -1.59% | 4.08% | 1.11% | -3.18% | 4.37% | 2.12% | -4.33% | 3.31% | 7.17% | -0.88% |
CPRT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.2% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.3% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -21.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
CPRT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CPRT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CPRT Distribution of Daily % Changes