Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.6% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -1.5% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.7% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -3.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
COST - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
COST - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
COST Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.18% | 7.50% | -1.42% | 1.82% | -5.60% | -2.18% | 1.92% | -0.84% | -4.15% | |||
| 2025 | 6.94% | 7.13% | -9.81% | 5.15% | 4.73% | -4.83% | -5.08% | 0.53% | -1.88% | -1.39% | 0.23% | -5.61% |
| 2024 | 5.27% | 7.21% | -1.51% | -1.17% | 12.03% | 4.95% | -3.16% | 8.56% | -0.66% | -1.39% | 11.32% | -5.72% |
| 2023 | 11.97% | -5.11% | 2.62% | 1.28% | 1.87% | 5.24% | 4.14% | -1.85% | 2.85% | -2.22% | 7.49% | 13.89% |
| 2022 | -11.02% | 2.95% | 10.90% | -7.51% | -12.32% | 2.80% | 13.14% | -3.55% | -9.54% | 6.38% | 7.53% | -15.35% |
| 2021 | -6.46% | -5.90% | 6.49% | 5.79% | 1.66% | 4.60% | 8.81% | 6.00% | -1.35% | 9.57% | 9.73% | 5.25% |
| 2020 | -7.79% | 1.42% | 6.51% | 1.81% | -1.71% | 7.59% | 6.80% | 2.11% | 0.93% | 9.55% | -1.31% | |
| Avg | 2.65% | 0.86% | 1.24% | 1.69% | 0.60% | 1.27% | 3.91% | 2.24% | -1.41% | 1.98% | 7.64% | -1.47% |
COST Distribution of Daily % Changes