Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.1% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -4.0% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -0.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
COO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
COO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
COO Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.71% | 2.81% | -14.55% | -12.03% | -2.69% | 17.15% | 0.85% | 5.32% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.03% | -6.39% | -6.67% | -3.18% | -16.40% | 4.22% | -0.66% | -4.65% | 1.72% | 1.97% | 11.47% | 5.17% |
| 2024 | -1.43% | 0.37% | 8.40% | -12.22% | 5.89% | -7.43% | 6.91% | 13.29% | 4.36% | -5.13% | -0.21% | -11.99% |
| 2023 | 5.53% | -6.29% | 14.19% | 2.17% | -2.60% | 3.20% | 2.05% | -5.44% | -14.05% | -1.97% | 8.07% | 12.32% |
| 2022 | -4.92% | 2.69% | 2.10% | -13.54% | -2.85% | -10.73% | 4.44% | -12.10% | -8.19% | 3.60% | 15.71% | 4.53% |
| 2021 | 0.21% | 6.07% | -0.53% | 6.98% | -4.24% | 0.72% | 6.44% | 6.86% | -8.30% | 0.87% | -9.70% | 11.28% |
| 2020 | -6.43% | -15.07% | 4.00% | 10.56% | -10.52% | -0.24% | 11.12% | 7.23% | -5.36% | 5.07% | 8.38% | |
| Avg | 0.62% | -1.03% | -1.73% | -3.97% | -1.76% | -0.48% | 2.83% | 1.51% | -2.87% | -1.00% | 5.07% | 4.95% |
COO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years