Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +14.8% with a 40% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -11.8% with only a 40% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +13.0% historically, with January alone posting a 40% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is -33.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
COIN - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
COIN - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
COIN Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -13.89% | -9.70% | -0.71% | 7.54% | 0.67% | -22.66% | 0.05% | 28.62% | 5.32% | |||
| 2025 | 17.33% | -25.99% | -20.12% | 17.80% | 21.55% | 42.12% | 7.78% | -19.38% | 10.82% | 1.86% | -20.64% | -17.11% |
| 2024 | -26.29% | 58.78% | 30.24% | -23.08% | 10.78% | -1.63% | 0.96% | -18.27% | -2.83% | 0.61% | 65.24% | -16.17% |
| 2023 | 65.24% | 10.86% | 4.23% | -20.39% | 15.63% | 15.03% | 37.82% | -19.28% | -5.68% | 2.72% | 61.72% | 39.45% |
| 2022 | -24.65% | 0.33% | -0.48% | -40.64% | -30.71% | -39.80% | 33.90% | 6.10% | -3.46% | 2.73% | -30.97% | -22.61% |
| 2021 | -20.53% | 7.09% | -6.60% | 9.48% | -12.17% | 40.42% | -1.38% | -19.88% | ||||
| Avg | 3.55% | 6.86% | 2.63% | -11.75% | -0.43% | 0.02% | 12.32% | -2.12% | -2.66% | 9.67% | 14.79% | -7.27% |
COIN Distribution of Daily % Changes