Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +19.7% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -9.5% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +31.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +62.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.96% | 22.03% | -8.00% | 34.21% | 13.06% | 9.13% | -33.36% | 23.94% | ||||
| 2025 | -4.48% | -16.91% | -13.63% | -0.95% | 17.58% | 17.96% | 20.61% | -15.92% | 19.07% | 22.50% | 24.48% | 12.36% |
| 2024 | 9.21% | 25.12% | 1.92% | -9.88% | 4.45% | 26.99% | -3.84% | 11.87% | 14.06% | 3.97% | 8.35% | -5.42% |
| 2023 | 23.65% | -0.62% | -11.71% | -10.35% | 8.26% | 37.93% | -7.10% | -20.54% | -13.26% | -9.31% | 24.29% | 18.32% |
| 2022 | -7.21% | 9.56% | 4.36% | -15.56% | 2.11% | -18.48% | 3.32% | -10.28% | -26.21% | -3.56% | 9.10% | -4.28% |
| 2021 | 10.68% | 0.27% | -18.90% | -1.80% | 0.34% | 7.75% | -3.83% | -9.78% | -5.75% | 1.94% | 3.34% | 9.28% |
| 2020 | -11.77% | -4.01% | 20.77% | 38.09% | -0.65% | 7.41% | -12.26% | -8.85% | 12.11% | 48.78% | 12.28% | |
| Avg | 7.80% | 3.95% | -7.14% | 2.35% | 11.98% | 11.52% | -2.40% | -9.49% | -3.49% | 4.61% | 19.72% | 7.09% |
COHR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
COHR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
COHR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
COHR Distribution of Daily % Changes