Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.0% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -1.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -5.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.52% | 10.20% | -0.78% | 1.14% | -2.65% | 4.21% | -4.54% | -2.88% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.65% | 6.24% | 5.38% | 7.04% | -3.39% | -1.34% | 5.66% | -2.30% | 2.89% | -1.44% | 5.13% | -4.10% |
| 2024 | -2.21% | -0.85% | 3.60% | 2.28% | 5.41% | 1.54% | -10.43% | -0.85% | 7.77% | 0.37% | 11.20% | -2.73% |
| 2023 | 0.43% | -7.03% | 5.89% | 3.43% | -6.81% | 3.33% | 3.22% | -6.68% | -3.73% | 0.11% | 5.94% | 1.06% |
| 2022 | 1.61% | -2.95% | 12.03% | -0.10% | 5.27% | -7.71% | 7.13% | 0.04% | -10.62% | 1.53% | 9.41% | -3.60% |
| 2021 | -2.54% | -7.13% | 16.51% | 8.12% | 3.98% | -3.08% | 3.83% | -0.86% | -1.95% | 5.85% | 0.14% | 7.72% |
| 2020 | -12.13% | -32.88% | 10.23% | 5.33% | 5.01% | 1.82% | 6.36% | -3.59% | 9.20% | 10.41% | -6.68% | |
| Avg | 0.58% | -1.95% | 1.39% | 4.59% | 1.02% | 0.28% | 0.96% | -0.72% | -1.54% | 2.60% | 7.04% | -1.39% |
CNP - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CNP - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CNP Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CNP Distribution of Daily % Changes